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- Functional income distriibution in a small European country: the role of financialisation and other determinantsPublication . Barradas, Ricardo; Lagoa, SérgioThis paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between the labour income share and financialisation, as well as other related variables in Portugal from 1978 to 2012. We estimate an equation for the labour share that includes standard variables (technological progress, globalisation, education and business cycle) and variables to capture the effect of financialisation. We formulate the hypothesis that the financialisation process may lead to a rise in the inequality of functional income distribution through three channels: the change in the sectoral composition of the economy (due to both the increase in the weight of financial activity and the decrease in government activity), the diffusion of shareholder value governance practices and the weakening of trade unions. Our results show that the financialisation process has an indirect long-term effect on the labour share through its impact on government activity and trade union density. The paper also finds evidence supporting the traditional explanations for functional income distribution, namely globalisation, education and business cycle.
- Does the financial system support economic growth in times of financialisation? Evidence for PortugalPublication . Barradas, RicardoThe purpose of this paper is the conduction of a time series econometric analysis in order to examine empirically the relationship between the financial system and economic growth in Portugal from 1977 to 2016. The Portuguese financial system has experienced a strong wave of privatisations, liberalisations and deregulations since the adhesion of Portugal to the European Economic Community in 1986, which has not favoured a sustained path of strong economic growth since then. The growth of the financial system played even a crucial role in the recent sovereign debt crisis in Portugal, casting doubts on the conventional hypothesis on the finance- growth nexus. The paper estimates a linear growth model and a non-linear growth model, which includes four proxies for the financial system (money supply, credit, financial value added and stock market capitalisation) and four further control variables (inflation, government consumption, trade openness and education). The paper finds a negative linear relationship between the banking system and Portuguese economic growth, a positive linear relationship between the stock markets and Portuguese economic growth, a concave quadratic relationship between the banking system and Portuguese economic growth, and a convex quadratic relationship between the stock markets and Portuguese economic growth. This suggests that Portuguese policy makers should canalise efforts to decrease the importance of banking system and to increase the importance of stock markets in order to support more robust economic growth in the coming years.
- Financialization and Portuguese real investment: a supportive or disruptive relationship?Publication . Barradas, Ricardo; Lagoa, SérgioThe article makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialization and real investment by Portuguese nonfinancial corporations from 1979 to 2013. In theory, while financialization leads to a rise in financial investments by nonfinancial corporations and thus deviates funds from real investment, it also intensifies the pressure for financial payments and therefore restricts the funds available for real investment. We estimate an aggregate investment function including control variables (profitability, debt, cost of capital and output growth) and two measures of financialization (financial receipts and financial payments). The study concludes that there is a long-term investment equation, and finds evidence that the process of financialization has hampered real investment largely as a result of financial payments. The article also finds that profitability and debt are both detrimental to real investment.
- Functional income distribution in portugal: the role of financialisation and other related determinantsPublication . Barradas, Ricardo; Lagoa, SérgioThis paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between the labour income share and financialisation, as well as other related variables in Portugal from 1978 to 2012. We estimate an equation for the labour share that includes standard variables (technological progress, globalisation, education and business cycle) and variables to capture the effect of financialisation. We formulate the hypothesis that the financialisation process may lead to a rise in the inequality of functional income distribution through three channels: the change in the sectoral composition of the economy (due to both the increase in the weight of financial activity and the decrease in government activity), the diffusion of shareholder value governance practices and the weakening of trade unions. Our results show that the financialisation process has an indirect long-term effect on the labour share through its impact on government activity and trade union density. The paper also finds evidence supporting the traditional explanations for functional income distribution, namely globalisation, education and business cycle.
- Financialisation and real investment in the European Union: beneficial or prejudicial effects?Publication . Barradas, RicardoThis article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financialisation and real investment for non-financial corporations using panel data composed of 27 European Union countries over 19 years (1995 to 2013). On the one hand, financialisation leads to a rise in financial investments, diverting funds from real investments (‘crowding out’ effect); on the other, pressures from shareholders to intensify financial payments restrict the funds available for new real investments. We estimate an aggregate investment equation with the traditional variables (lagged investment, profitability, debt, cost of capital, corporate savings and output growth) and two further measures of financialisation (financial receipts and financial payments). The findings demonstrate that financialisation has damaged real investment in European Union countries, mainly through the channel of financial payments, either by interest or dividend payments. It is also found that the prejudicial effects of financialisation on investment were more severe in the pre-2007 crisis period. It is concluded that financialisation contributed to a slowdown of real investment by 1 to 8 per cent in the full and pre-crisis period, respectively. During the pre-crisis period, financialisation was the main driver of the slowdown of investment in the European Union.
- Drivers of private consumption in the era of financialisation: new evidence for the European Union countriesPublication . Barradas, RicardoThis paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of financialisation on private consumption using panel data for all 28 European Union countries from 1995 to 2015. According to the post Keynesian literature, financialisation exerts two contradictory effects on private consumption, notably a negative one linked to the fall of households’ labour income and a positive one related to the increase of households’ (financial and housing) wealth. A private consumption equation was estimated by including three variables linked to financialisation (labour income, financial wealth and housing wealth) and five additional control variables (lagged private consumption, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate, inflation rate and unemployment rate). Our results confirm that financialisation has been detrimental to private consumption in the EU countries as a whole, and more specifically in the Euro area countries, as the beneficial wealth effect has not been sufficient to compensate for the prejudicial income effect. The fall of households’ labour income has even been the highest constraint on private consumption in the Euro area countries
- Financialization in the European Periphery and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: The Portuguese CasePublication . Barradas, Ricardo; Lagoa, Sérgio; Leão, Emanuel; Mamede, RicardoThe financial sector has acquired great prominence in most developed economies. Some authors argue that the growth of finance is at the root of the financial and economic difficulties of the past decade. This article aims to analyze this claim by looking at financialization in the European periphery, focusing on the Portuguese case. The emergence of this phenomenon is contextualized from a historical, economic and international perspective. Based on the analysis of several indicators, the article concludes that the Portuguese economy exhibits symptoms of financialization that are typically found in Southern European countries and that these differ significantly from the patterns characterizing financialization processes in more advanced economies. The article discusses how the increasing importance of financial actors and motives in the Portuguese economy played a decisive role in the emergence of the crisis.
- The New Keynesian Model: an empirical application to the euro area economyPublication . Barradas, RicardoThis paper empirically applies the New Keynesian Model to the euro area’s e conomy during the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the last quarter of 2008, which is consistent with the scant empirical evidence on this Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. The New Keynesian Model is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments, since the model denote hybrid features including backward and forward looking behaviours by economic agents and elements with rational expectations. Although this method of estimation may present some limitations, the New Keynesian Model seems to describe reasonably well the evolution of economic activity, the inflation rate and monetary policy in the euro area. Against this backdrop, the New Keynesian Model may provide an important tool for aiding the governments of euro area countries and the European Central Bank in the adoption and implementation of its policies over time.
- A Sustentabilidade do Sistema de Pensões em PortugalPublication . Barradas, Ricardo; Lagoa, SérgioO objetivo principal deste trabalho é analisar as características atuais do sistema de pensões em Portugal, as principais reformas efetuadas e as perspetivas de evolução, procurando identificar propostas de melhoria. Entre 1995 e 2014, o peso da despesa com pensões na economia registou em Portugal um dos maiores aumentos da área do euro, e em 2014 situou-se entre os mais elevados. Em face desta evolução, foram realizadas reformas importantes, nomeadamente a partir de 2002, que melhoraram a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de pensões e o colocaram, genericamente, em linha com os melhores sistemas da OCDE em termos da promoção da eficiência microeconómica e da existência de um fator de sustentabilidade demográfica, tendo sido possível manter uma capacidade de substituir rendimento superior à média europeia. Apesar de algumas melhorias no combate à pobreza, este continua a ser um dos elementos onde a margem de melhoria ainda é significativa. Em termos financeiros, as reformas realizadas permitem que as perspetivas a longo prazo (2060) não sejam de agravamento do défice financeiro, apesar de este persistir, à semelhança do que ocorre na UE. Assim, as necessidades de melhoria do sistema continuam presentes, sendo apresentadas algumas propostas ao longo do trabalho.
- Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yieldsPublication . Barradas, Ricardo; Pinho, AndréThis paper conducts an empirical examination of the determinants of the 10‐, 5‐ and 1‐year Portuguese government bond yields by performing a time series econometric analysis for the period between the first quarter of 2000 and the last quarter of 2016. The literature suggests that the evolution of government bond yields depends on three main risk drivers, namely credit risk, global risk aversion and liquidity risk. We estimate three equations for the 10‐, 5‐ and 1‐year Portuguese government bond yields, including eight independent variables (macroeconomic performance, fiscal conditions, foreign borrowing, the inflation rate, labour productivity, the demographic situation, global risk aversion and liquidity risk) to take into account all three risk drivers referred to in the literature. Our results show that there are no significant differences in the determinants of the Portuguese government bond yields among the different maturities, either in the long term or in the short term. Our results also confirm that all three of the risk drivers have exerted a strong influence on the evolution of the Portuguese government bond yields. Liquidity risk, foreign borrowing and the inflation rate are the main triggers of the rise in the Portuguese government bond yields, which does not counterweigh the beneficial effects played by the fiscal conditions, labour productivity and demographic situation.