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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O setor automóvel em Portugal é particularmente significativo, tendo um importante impacto na economia, nomeadamente no emprego e no produto interno bruto (PIB) português. A origem da produção industrial de automóveis em Portugal remonta a 1959. Esta surgiu quando o governo compreendeu o forte contributo que as importações de automóveis têm para a balança comercial do país.
Para a compreensão e melhor gestão de qualquer setor de atividade, incluindo o setor automóvel, é importante aferir o estado da economia. Nomeadamente, é relevante conhecer o desempenho da economia no curto prazo, ou seja, qual a extensão e duração das flutuações cíclicas. Ao estudar os ciclos económicos, compreender-se-á de que modo a indústria automóvel responde a períodos de recessão e de expansão na economia.
Considerando a importância do estudo dos ciclos económicos no processo de apoio à tomada de decisão, este estudo tem como objetivo verificar a existência de oscilações nas vendas de automóveis em conformidade com estas variações de mercado. Desta forma para estimar os resultados irão ser utilizadas técnicas econométricas convencionais, de uma base de dados com 18 observações.
Os resultados obtidos podem revelar discrepâncias entre a teoria e os acontecimentos reais, devido a variáveis não consideradas no estudo. Contudo, através dos testes estatísticos aplicados, espera-se obter o resultado mais próximo da realidade possível.
The automotive sector in Portugal is particularly significant, making a strong contribution to the economy, notably employment and to the Portuguese gross domestic product (GDP). The origin of industrial car production in Portugal dates back to 1959. It originated when the government understood how strongly car imports should contributed to the country's trade balance. For the understanding and better management of any sector of activity, including the automotive sector, it is important to know the state of the economy. In particular, it is relevant to know the performance of the economy in a short period of time, that is, the extent and duration of cyclical fluctuations. By studying business cycles, it will be understood how the automotive industry responds to periods of economic recession and expansion. Considering the importance of studying business cycles in the decision-making process, this study aimed to verify the existence of fluctuations in car sales according to these market variations. Thus, to estimate the results, conventional econometric techniques will be used, from a database with 18 observations. The obtained results may reveal discrepancies between theory and actual events, due to variables not considered in the study. However, through applied statistical tests, it is expected to obtain a result as close to reality as possible.
The automotive sector in Portugal is particularly significant, making a strong contribution to the economy, notably employment and to the Portuguese gross domestic product (GDP). The origin of industrial car production in Portugal dates back to 1959. It originated when the government understood how strongly car imports should contributed to the country's trade balance. For the understanding and better management of any sector of activity, including the automotive sector, it is important to know the state of the economy. In particular, it is relevant to know the performance of the economy in a short period of time, that is, the extent and duration of cyclical fluctuations. By studying business cycles, it will be understood how the automotive industry responds to periods of economic recession and expansion. Considering the importance of studying business cycles in the decision-making process, this study aimed to verify the existence of fluctuations in car sales according to these market variations. Thus, to estimate the results, conventional econometric techniques will be used, from a database with 18 observations. The obtained results may reveal discrepancies between theory and actual events, due to variables not considered in the study. However, through applied statistical tests, it is expected to obtain a result as close to reality as possible.
Description
Mestrado em Análise Financeira
Keywords
Setor automóvel Ciclos económicos Vendas PIB Economia Emprego Automotive sector Business cycles Sales GDP Economy Employment
Citation
Vieira, C. A. R. (2023) Os impactos dos ciclos económicos no setor automóvel. (Dissertação de mestrado não publicada). Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração de Lisboa. Disponível em http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/16099