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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O Leilão Solar Flutuante que ocorreu em Portugal no ano de 2021 surge num momento crucial para o setor de energia renovável, o que se justifica pelo incremento da procura de energias renováveis e pelo seu impacto ambiental. Este Leilão surge mediante um mecanismo de atribuição de projetos por parte do Governo que tem procurado estimular o investimento na tecnologia fotovoltaica, que foi, do mesmo modo, implementado nos anos de 2019 e 2020, e que tem merecido atenção devido aos reduzidos preços de venda de energia atingidos. Neste contexto, através de uma avaliação técnico-económica, procurou-se com a presente dissertação compreender as estratégias adotadas pelos titulares dos lotes adjudicados que tiveram em vista a viabilidade dos projetos no período contratualizado. Com vista à concretização deste objetivo, recorrer-se-á à implementação de um modelo de simulação que, com recurso aos dados dos lotes adjudicados, a diversos cenários de preços de mercado e custos de investimento e à possibilidade de hibridização do sistema fotovoltaico flutuante com sistemas externos, concluir quanto à viabilidade económica dos projetos para o prazo contratual de 15 anos e no período estimado de vida útil dos módulos fotovoltaicos, aproximadamente 25 anos. A análise económica dos lotes adjudicados permitiu concluir que, para ambos os sistemas de remuneração, sendo considerado um período de 25 anos, com um preço de mercado a partir de 100,82 €/MWh os titulares poderão equacionar diversos cenários de investimento com vista a encontrar as soluções mais rentáveis para os respetivos lotes. Do estudo dos diversos lotes é possível concluir que o modelo de remuneração Compensação Fixa ao SEN constitui o modelo mais rentável para o titular, ainda que comporte mais riscos para o mesmo, comparativamente com o Modelo Prémio Variável por Diferenças, ainda que se recorra à hibridização solar-eólica.
The Floating Solar Auction that took place in Portugal in 2021 comes at a crucial time for the renewable energy sector, justified by the increase in demand for renewable energy and its environmental impact. This Auction is the result of a mechanism for awarding projects by the Government that has sought to stimulate investment in photovoltaic technology, that was also implemented in 2019 and 2020, and which has received attention due to the low energy sales prices achieved. In this context, through a technical and economic assessment, this dissertation sought to understand the strategies adopted by the holders of the awarded lots with a view to the viability of the projects during the period of the contract. In order to achieve this objective, a simulation model will be implemented which, using data from the lots awarded, various market price and investment cost scenarios and the possibility of hybridizing the floating photovoltaic system with external systems, will conclude on the economic viability of the projects for the contractual term of 15 years and the estimated useful life of the photovoltaic modules, approximately 25 years. The economic analysis of the lots awarded led to the conclusion that, for both remuneration systems, considering a period of 25 years, with a market price starting at 100.82 €/MWh, the owners will be able to consider various investment scenarios in order to find the most profitable solutions for the respective lots. From the study of the various lots, it can be concluded that the Fixed Compensation to the SEN remuneration model is the most profitable model for the holder, although it involves more risk for the holder compared to the Variable Premium for Differences model, even if solar-wind hybridization is used.
The Floating Solar Auction that took place in Portugal in 2021 comes at a crucial time for the renewable energy sector, justified by the increase in demand for renewable energy and its environmental impact. This Auction is the result of a mechanism for awarding projects by the Government that has sought to stimulate investment in photovoltaic technology, that was also implemented in 2019 and 2020, and which has received attention due to the low energy sales prices achieved. In this context, through a technical and economic assessment, this dissertation sought to understand the strategies adopted by the holders of the awarded lots with a view to the viability of the projects during the period of the contract. In order to achieve this objective, a simulation model will be implemented which, using data from the lots awarded, various market price and investment cost scenarios and the possibility of hybridizing the floating photovoltaic system with external systems, will conclude on the economic viability of the projects for the contractual term of 15 years and the estimated useful life of the photovoltaic modules, approximately 25 years. The economic analysis of the lots awarded led to the conclusion that, for both remuneration systems, considering a period of 25 years, with a market price starting at 100.82 €/MWh, the owners will be able to consider various investment scenarios in order to find the most profitable solutions for the respective lots. From the study of the various lots, it can be concluded that the Fixed Compensation to the SEN remuneration model is the most profitable model for the holder, although it involves more risk for the holder compared to the Variable Premium for Differences model, even if solar-wind hybridization is used.
Description
Trabalho final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica – Ramo Energia
Keywords
Energia renovável Energia solar Energia eólica Mercados de energia Leilão solar flutuante Hibridização Avaliação económica Renewable energy Solar energy Wind energy Energy markets Floating solar auction Hybridization Economic assessment
Citation
CAÇADOR, Diogo Miguel das Neves Irédio – Instalações fotovoltaicas em albufeiras: avaliação técnico-económica dos lotes admitidos no leilão de 2021. Lisboa: Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, 2023. Dissertação de Mestrado.