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- The Sticky Information Macro Model: Beyond Perfect ForesightPublication . Gomes, OrlandoSticky information monetary models have been used in the macroeconomic literature to explain some of the observed features regarding inflation dynamics. In this paper, we explore the consequences of relaxing the rational expectations assumption usually taken in this type of model; in particular, by considering expectations formed through adaptive learning, it is possible to arrive to results other than the trivial convergence to a fixed point long-term equilibrium. The results involve the possibility of endogenous cyclical motion (periodic and a-periodic), which emerges essentially in scenarios of hyperinflation. In low inflation settings, the introduction of learning implies a less severe impact of monetary shocks that, nevertheless, tend to last for additional time periods relative to the pure perfect foresight setup.
- Diffusion Dynamics in Economics: an Application to the Effects of Fiscal PolicyPublication . Gomes, OrlandoThis study addresses diffusion dynamics in an economic environment in which fiscal policy changes take place. The discussion, based upon a conventional intertemporal optimization setup, involves the consideration of a peculiar form of bounded rationality: it is assumed that only a small share of house- holds is able to instantly recompute the optimal solution once the value of a tax rate is disturbed; all the other agents will then, gradually, follow the behavior of thefirst group (this can occur through contagion, social influence or social learning). As a result, the convergence towards the post-perturbation steady-state tends to follow a diffusion process and, consequently, policy measures may take time in affecting pervasively labor-leisure and consumption-savings choices.
- The methodology and implementation of a knowledge management system in the economic area of a high polytechnic school: case study LABSPublication . Gubareva, Mariya; Gomes, Orlando; Piteira, Margarida; Correia, Anabela; Proença, Carlos; Ochoa Guevara, Nancy Edith; LOPEZ QUINTERO, JOSE FERNANDOThe knowledge management regarding scientific production of the fully employed professors and contributing lecturers of renowned universities is a well-established practice in the major developed countries. Still, substantial improvements in this field are desirable for high polytechnic schools of Southern Europe. This chapter presents a study on knowledge management and analyses trends of a scientific production in the economics and finance area at one of the Portuguese high polytechnic school, namely Lisbon Accounting and Business School (LABS). The data collection methodology regarding scientific research outcomes firstly was proposed and implemented at the economics and finance area. This data collection was based on the direct mail messages addressed to the effective teaching staff members followed by the individual and aggregate analyses of the obtained information regarding published works in the field of economics and finance. The time frame of scientific publications analyses spans over the period of 20 years, namely 1997 - 2016. Later the same methodology was also extended to cover the entire institution. The knowledge management system was implemented in all the knowledge-producing units of LABS. A special database was created to keep the records. It now allows for timely consultation by the administrative bodies of the institution. The main contribution of this study is to demonstrate that the right knowledge management in polytechnic schools is able to unleash hidden potentialities of the capacities evidenced through the implementation of the system of knowledge management. In practical terms, the aggregate results were presented in the form of a report entitled "Creating Knowledge", which was published on the Internet site of the institution. The main findings of this report "Creating Knowledge" were used in the promotion of the LABS towards potential students and represented one of the main factors of fully accomplished enrollment of students for all graduate courses of the LABS for the new academic year beginning in September 2016 at the first stage of the enrollment process.
- Exuberance and Social ContagionPublication . Gomes, OrlandoEpisodes of collective exuberance that recurrently hit the economy are, in this note, associated with sentiment propagation in a network of social relations. The pivotal role played by exuberant individuals will give place to a dynamic setting where limit cycles constitute the most plausible long-term outcome. Endogenous sentiment waves, with peaks and troughs of exuberance, are in this way identified in the context of a straightforward interaction scenario.
- Growth theory under heterogeneous heuristic behaviorPublication . Gomes, OrlandoOver the last decades, conceptual frameworks formulated to address the dynamics of economic growth have hypothesized, discussed and tested a large number of different assumptions concerning the role of capital accumulation, labor productivity, learning-by-doing, formal education, innovation, and diffusion of ideas. Underlying all these theoretical contributions is, on the demand side, a pervasive and apparently unshakable structure of analysis: economic agents invariably set an optimal intertemporal consumption plan which allows then to maximize utility over an infinite horizon. Such behavior, however, suggests a planning ability that agents often lack. In fact, household decisions are frequently designed on the basis of heuristics or rules-of-thumb that, although not optimal, are reachable under the cognitive constraints typically faced by human beings. This paper revisits some of the most prominent models of the mainstream growth theory, taking a specific heuristic to account for consumption-savings decisions. The heuristic, which allows for the consideration of distinct profiles of saving behavior across individual agents, is a static rule, which might suggest a return to a Solow-like growth analysis. Notwithstanding, the adopted rule-of-thumb encloses a series of novel and relevant implications for growth theory. Such implications are duly highlighted and discussed in this study.
- O modelo de agente representativoPublication . Gomes, OrlandoA teoria económica contemporânea assenta grande parte do seu raciocínio na ideia de que é possível compreender o comportamento dos agentes económicos e a complexidade das relações que entre eles se estabelecem reduzindo esse comportamento às escolhas de um agente representativo. Este agente procura maximizar a utilidade do consumo perante determinada restrição de recursos que ele, ou o sistema económico como um todo, enfrenta. Apesar de esta ideia não estar isenta de possível crítica e de o caminho da modelização ser cada vez mais o de considerar agentes heterogéneos em interação, a verdade é que se trata de um conceito poderoso, que permite compreender mecanismos lógicos relevantes, num contexto que é frequentemente assumido como dinâmico e intertemporal. Neste capítulo, caracterizam-se os pilares fundamentais do modelo de agente representativo.
- Optimal Resource Allocation in a Representative Investor EconomyPublication . Gomes, OrlandoThe Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans neoclassical growth setup and the AK endogenous growth framework are two prototypes of a class of growthmodelswhere, by assumption, investment resources are always perfectly allocated to production. As a corollary, these models offer a partial view of the growth process circumscribed to a limit case, namely the most favorable case in which all possible frictions on the allocation of investment resources are absent. This paper adds to the conventional growth setup an optimal mechanism of assignment of investment resources that contemplates the possibility of inefficient allocation. In the assumed economy there is a single representative investor and a large number of firms that compete for the available resources. The new setup highlights how agency costs may deviate the economy from the benchmark growth outcome, potentially generating less desirable long-run results. The appeal of the proposed framework resides also on the fact that new determinants of growth emerge and take a leading role, namely the investor's sentiment and the quality of the firms' investment proposals.
- A Model of Animal Spirits via Sentiment SpreadingPublication . Gomes, OrlandoIn order to incorporate animal spirits in a scientifically rigorous inquiry about the causes of aggregate business cycles, one needs to explore the foundations of human behavior, namely concerning the process through which sentiment switching occurs. Which factors drive human sentiments? In what conditions a pessimistic individual becomes an optimist, or the other way around? Is it possible to justify persistent waves of optimism and pessimism under reasonable assumptions concerning social behavior? This article proposes a framework to address the posed questions. The setup is based on rumor propagation theory and it explains how social interaction may lead individuals to change from one sentiment state to the other, eventually triggering a rotation between periods of dominant optimism and periods of dominant pessimism.
- Análise dinâmica das finanças públicasPublication . Gomes, OrlandoNeste capítulo recorre-se ao modelo intertemporal de agente representativo para explicar aspetos importantes das finanças públicas e do impacto destas sobre as decisões dos agentes económicos privados. Apresenta-se a restrição orçamental dinâmica do Estado, debate-se o conceito de equivalência Ricardiana, discute-se a implementação de diferentes sistemas fiscais, desenvolvem-se algumas ideias sobre o financiamento da segurança social e sobre a eficácia das políticas de apoio social. Por fim, é descrita com algum pormenor uma estrutura teórica na qual estão presentes alguns dos elementos fundamentais do modelo macroeconómico contemporâneo de referência (o modelo novo-Keynesiano), como a rigidez de preços ou a condução da política monetária via regras de Taylor.
- Agency Relations in the Brain: Towards an Optimal Control TheoryPublication . Gomes, OrlandoRecent literature on individual decision-making emphasizes the idea that the brain functions as an organization, with the allocation of resources to the development of different cognitive tasks occurring via an agency relation across distinct brain systems. In this note, the mentioned view on the deliberative process of the human mind is extended to a dynamic optimization setting. Meaningful results, concerning the long-term allocation of cognitive resources, are derived.
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