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- Tsunami-induced morphological change – A model-based impact assessment of the 1755 tsunami in NE Atlantic from the Morocco coastPublication . Ramalho, Inês; Omira, Rachid; EL MOUSSAOUI, Said; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Zaghloul, M. N.Tsunamis can be responsible for coastal geomorphic crises. Extensively inundated coasts can suffer widespread and dramatic changes in their morphology due to sediment erosion, transport, and deposition processes. In this paper, we investigate the tsunami-induced morphological changes on coasts prone to inundation and how sediment transport is controlled by both tsunami and sediment characteristics. We focus on a tsunami-prone coast in the NE Atlantic, Tangier-Morocco, that experienced the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. We use a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic numerical model, together with high-resolution digital elevation and sedimentary models, to simulate the impact of tsunamis on the morphology and sediment distribution of Tangier Bay. Due to the uncertainty on the source and effects of the 1755 event, we consider two 1755-like tsunamigenic scenarios that have the potential to cause different levels of inundation. Results show that the coastal zone of Tangier can undergo substantial changes in morphology and sediment distribution following the tsunami impact. For the selected scenarios, the volume of sediments mobilized, at both the offshore and onshore zones of the Tangier site, ranges from 30,000 to 200,000 m3. Moreover, the presence of mobile sediments and conditions favoring tsunami shoaling lead to an increase in wave impact on the coastal configuration. Conversely, the presence of the breakwaters helps to protect the Tangier coast by limiting the extent of the affected area. The results of this study suggest that the assessment of tsunami-induced coastal impact should include the effect on morphology.
- The contribution of submarine optical fiber telecom cables to the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis in the NE AtlanticPublication . Matias, Luis; Carrilho, Fernando; Sá, Vasco; Omira, Rachid; Niehus, Manfred; Corela, Carlos; Barros, José; Omar, YasserRecent developments in optical fiber cable technology allows the use of existing and future submarine telecommunication cables to provide seismic and sea-level information. In this work we study the impact of three different technologies, 1) SMART, Science Monitoring and Reliable Telecommunications; 2) DAS, Distributed Acoustic Sensing, and; 3) LI, Laser Interferometry, for effective earthquake and tsunami monitoring capabilities on the NE Atlantic. The SW Iberia is the source area of the largest destructive earthquake that struck Europe since the year 1000, the November 1, 1755 event. This earthquake generated also a destructive tsunami affecting the whole basin. This tectonically active area is crossed by the CAM (Continent-Azores-Madeira) submarine cable on a ring configuration. Due to the end of cable lifetime the current cables need to be replaced by 2024 and the technical requirements must be defined in mid-2021. The Azores archipelago is the focus of frequent seismic crizes and occasionally destructive earthquakes. A common feature of these seismic events is that they take place offshore, an area that is difficult to monitor from land-based instruments. In this work we evaluate the contribution of SMART cables to the earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning system in SW Iberia and show how DAS and LI can improve earthquake monitoring on two active domains of the Azores. For tsunami early warning, we show how the offshore sea-level measurements provide clean offshore tsunami records when compared to coastal observations by tide gauges, which greatly improves the efficiency of the system. For earthquake monitoring, the data processing operational routine is examined using Monte-Carlo simulations. These take into consideration the errors in phase picking and the uncertainty on the 1D velocity model used for earthquake location. Quality of earthquake location is examined using the difference between the true location and the centroid of the computed epicenters and by the overall ellipse of uncertainty obtained from 100 runs. The added value provided by instrumented submarine telecommunication cables to mitigate earthquake and tsunami risk demonstrated in this work will help authorities and the society in general to take the political decisions required for its full implementation worldwide.
- Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS toolsPublication . Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Toto, E.; Catita, C.; Catalão, J.Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco's coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.
- Study of the 24 September 2013 Oman Sea tsunami using linear shallow water inversionPublication . Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; MIRANDA, JORGE MIGUEL; Omira, Rachid; El-Hussain, IssaIn this study, we present a linear inverse approach for the computation of the initial water displacement of a tsunami. The method uses empirical Green functions and linear shallow water wave theory. We apply this methodology to study the source of the 24 September 2013 tsunami off the Makran coast. We re-analyze the 2013 tsunami data, particularly the tide records in the coast of Oman and the DART buoy record in the Arabian Sea, to infer its source. We use wavelet and Fourier analyses to characterize the frequency content of the tide records and the possible influence of local harbor effects. We compute empirical Green functions for the possible source area, and then use a linear shallow water inversion technique to assess the water disturbance in the early stage of tsunami propagation. The comparison between forward modeling and observations shows a fair agreement with available data, particularly in what concerns the DART record. It also suggests the existence of local amplifications in a number of Omani harbors. The free surface elevation obtained by inversion of the waveforms is coherent with a landslide located close to 61.5 degrees E, 24 degrees N, sliding to the S or SSE direction. Our results show that the inversion technique used here leads to a better characterization of the tsunami source than the simple backward ray tracing which assumes a simple point source. In addition, these results strengthen the hypothesis that landslides might have played an important role in previous tsunami events in the area, and must be taken into account for tsunami hazard assessment on the Omani coast.
- Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case StudyPublication . Omira, Rachid; Matias, Luís; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho VianaThis study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.
- Synthetic tsunami waveform catalogs with kinematic constraintsPublication . Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Matias, Luis; Omira, RachidIn this study we present a comprehensive methodology to produce a synthetic tsunami waveform catalogue in the northeast Atlantic, east of the Azores islands. The method uses a synthetic earthquake catalogue compatible with plate kinematic constraints of the area. We use it to assess the tsunami hazard from the transcurrent boundary located between Iberia and the Azores, whose western part is known as the Gloria Fault. This study focuses only on earthquake-generated tsunamis. Moreover, we assume that the time and space distribution of the seismic events is known. To do this, we compute a synthetic earthquake catalogue including all fault parameters needed to characterize the seafloor deformation covering the time span of 20 000 years, which we consider long enough to ensure the representability of earthquake generation on this segment of the plate boundary. The computed time and space rupture distributions are made compatible with global kinematic plate models. We use the tsunami empirical Green's functions to efficiently compute the synthetic tsunami waveforms for the dataset of coastal locations, thus providing the basis for tsunami impact characterization. We present the results in the form of offshore wave heights for all coastal points in the dataset. Our results focus on the northeast Atlantic basin, showing that earthquake-induced tsunamis in the transcurrent segment of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary pose a minor threat to coastal areas north of Portugal and beyond the Strait of Gibraltar. However, in Morocco, the Azores, and the Madeira islands, we can expect wave heights between 0.6 and 0.8 m, leading to precautionary evacuation of coastal areas. The advantages of the method are its easy application to other regions and the low computation effort needed.
- Boulder deposition during major tsunami eventsPublication . Costa, Pedro J. M.; Andrade, Cesar; Freitas, Maria C.; Oliveira, Maria A.; da Silva, Carlos M.; Omira, Rachid; Taborda, Rui; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Dawson, Alastair G.A remarkable accumulation of marine boulders located above the present spring tide level has occurred in two coastal lowlands of the Algarve (Portugal). The size-interval of the particles studied here is seldom reported in the literature in association with extreme events of coastal inundation, thus making this study of relevance to many other coasts worldwide. The spreads of boulders extend several hundred meters inland and well beyond the present landward limit of storm activity. The marine origin of the boulders is demonstrated by well-developed macro-bioerosion sculpturing and in situ skeletal remains of endolithic shallow marine bivalves. The good state preservation of the fossils within the boulders indicates that abrasion duringtransport and redeposition was not significant. We envisage boulder deposition as having taken place during the Lisbon tsunami of ad 1755 through the simultaneous landward entrainment of coarse particles from nearshore followed by rapid shoreward suspended-dominated transport and non-graded redeposition that excluded significant sorting by weight or boulder dimensions. We use numerical hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami (and storm) waves to test the observational data on boulder dimensions (density, size, distribution) on the most likely processes of sediment deposition. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of the study of boulder deposits in tsunami reconstruction. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
- Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: a study case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve, PortugalPublication . Font, E.; Nascimento, C.; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Silva, Pedro F.Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.
- Tsunami characteristics along the Peru-Chile trench: analysis of the 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, the 2014 Mw8.2 iquique and the 2010 Mw8.8 maule tsunamis in the near-fieldPublication . Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Lisboa, F.Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru-Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru-Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru-Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru-Chile Trench.
- On the source of the 8 May 1939 Azores earthquake - tsunami observations and numerical modellingPublication . Reis, Cláudia; Omira, Rachid; Matias, Luis; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho VianaOn 8 May 1939, an earthquake (Ms7.1) occurred near the Azores archipelago, with an epicentre located close to the western end of the Gloria fault. Previous studies present different epicentre locations spreading over a large area, and two different types of focal mechanisms. Given these uncertainties, the interpretation of the seismological information in a complex tectonic environment between the Gloria Fault and the Terceira Ridge is a matter of debate. The event caused a small tsunami recorded in the Azores Islands. In this study, we use the tsunami observations and tsunami numerical modelling to select the earthquake fault rupture that best fits the tsunami observations. We consider the different focal mechanism solutions, perform tsunami numerical modelling, and compute synthetic tsunami waveforms at the tide gauge locations. We find that an earthquake caused by a low-angle dipping fault with dominant strike-slip movement generates a tsunami that reproduces well the record at Ponta Delgada tide gauge. Finally, in areas where earthquakes are rare, the study of ancient earthquakes must use all information available, namely tsunami observations and mareograph data.
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