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- Power producers trading electricity in both pool and forward marketsPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Lopes, Fernando; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Lagarto, JoãoThe electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.
- Electricity spot prices structural changes in the Iberian electricity marketPublication . Bolas, João; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Martins, Ana Alexandra; Lagarto, JoãoIn recent years, the power sector has undergone a restructuring process in many economies in the world. This movement towards liberalization led to the establishment of electricity markets that promote the competitiveness of the production and trading segments of the power sector. In these markets, the agents have to deal with frequent electricity price changes leading to different strategies in their daily bidding behavior. There are a set of variables that can have an impact in the electricity price definition, such as: fuel prices, CO 2 emissions prices, electricity production and demand. This paper proposes to analyze structural changes in the Iberian electricity market price between two periods of time: 2007/2008 and 2010/2011. For this purpose, three quantitative analysis methods were used: correlation, causality and Principal Components. Results suggest that the electricity price had a structural change between the analyzed periods, in particular the increasing importance of special regime production.
- Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima modelPublication . Lagarto, João; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Martins, Álvaro; Ferrão, PauloPrice forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.
- Power Producers Trading Electricity in Both Pool and Forward MarketsPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Lopes, Fernando; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Lagarto, JoãoThe electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.
- A trader portfolio optimization of bilateral contracts in electricity retail marketsPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Lopes, Fernando; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Lagarto, JoãoElectricity markets are systems for effecting the purchase and sale of electricity using supply and demand to set energy prices. Two major market models are often distinguished: pools and bilateral contracts. Pool prices tend to change quickly and variations are usually highly unpredictable. In this way, market participants often enter into bilateral contracts to hedge against pool price volatility. This article addresses the challenge of optimizing the portfolio of clients managed by trader agents. Typically, traders buy energy in day-ahead markets and sell it to a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving three-rate tariffs. Traders sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.
- Volatility spillovers in the Iberian electricity marketPublication . Vicente, João; Martins, Ana Alexandra; Lagarto, João; Sousa, Jorge A. M.With the globalization of the world economy, the relationships between commodities, financial and other markets are relevant. Although the electricity market is a more recent kind of market, it is still related with other markets, such as, commodities markets (natural gas, coal, oil), and carbon emissions markets. In this work, we propose to study the interconnections between the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) and the commodities markets, as well as, the carbon emissions markets between 2010 and 2016. To achieve this purpose, we use the Diebold-Yilmaz framework, which proposes measures of the interdependence of returns and volatilities through variance decomposition of forecasted error variances in a generalized vector autoregressive model. Results show that the markets that had a higher influence in MIBEL in the analyzed period were the TTF and Zeebrugge natural gas markets and the markets that MIBEL most influenced were the Coal (API2) and CER market.
- Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversityPublication . Pereira, João Venceslau; Ferreira, Rúben Aires Fonseca Paz; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Lagarto, João; Martins, Ana AlexandraRenewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.
- Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the Portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversityPublication . Pereira, João Venceslau; Ferreira, Rúben Aires Fonseca Paz; Sousa, Jorge A. M.; Lagarto, João; Martins, Ana AlexandraRenewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.
- Modeling maximum day-ahead market price using circular statistical methodsPublication . Martins, Ana Alexandra; Lagarto, João; Sousa, Jorge A. M.Electricity day-ahead market price and traded quantity present a distinct pattern between peak and off-peak hours, following a pattern that tends to repeat over a 24-hour time cycle. The cyclic nature of these variables enables the use of circular statistics. Circular statistics is a set of techniques for modelling the random nature of directional data, which are typically expressed as angular measurements, which can be used to analyze any kind of data that are cyclic in nature, such as time-of-day data measured on a 24h clock. In this study, the circular statistical methods are used for analyzing the maximum values of day-ahead market price in the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). The data considered in this study refer to the hourly price of electricity observed in the MIBEL, for Portugal and Spain. Also, variables that have influence on the electricity market prices such as demand, production by technology, namely hydro, coal, CCGT and Special Regime Production (production from CHP, wind, photovoltaic, small hydro, etc.) and the strategic behavior of market participants are also analyzed using circular statistics methods. The analysis performed allowed to conclude that circular statistical methods are a powerful tool to understand market price behavior.
- Electricity market price analysis using time series clusteringPublication . Martins, Ana Alexandra; Lagarto, João; Cardoso, Maria MargaridaThe creation of the internal market of electricity has long been a goal of the European Union, for which it has established common rules through the directive 2009/72/EC. In this context, the analysis of electricity markets operation of the different countries that will form the internal market is of the utmost importance. In this work, we use clustering techniques to analyze 26 time series of day-ahead electricity prices from European markets between 2015 and 2018 in order to identify different price patterns. The cluster technique proposed uses a combination of three dissimilarity measures for time series: Euclidean, Pearson correlation based and periodogram based. Results show that there is a clear distinction between Northern markets, especially Nord Pool, and Southern markets, MIBEL and Italy. Moreover, results also show that despite some market prices presenting similar behaviors, a full integrated European electricity market is yet to be accomplished.
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