Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Most financial and economic time-series display a strong volatility around their trends. The difficulty in explaining this volatility has led economists to interpret it as exogenous, i.e., as the result of forces that lie outside the scope of the assumed economic relations. Consequently, it becomes hard or impossible to formulate short-run forecasts on asset prices or on values of macroeconomic variables. However, many random looking economic and financial series may, in fact, be subject to deterministic irregular behavior, which can
be measured and modelled. We address the notion of endogenous volatility and exemplify the concept with a simple business-cycles model.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Endogenous volatility Volatility clustering Nonlinear dynamics Chartists and fundamentalists Periodicity and chaos Business cycles