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Controlling infectious diseases: the decisive phase effect on a seasonal vaccination strategy

2021-12-15Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorJanuário, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorMartins, Nuno
dc.contributor.authorSeoane, Jesús M.
dc.contributor.authorSANJUAN, MIGUEL A. F.
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-21T10:03:39Z
dc.date.available2022-01-21T10:03:39Z
dc.date.issued2021-12-15
dc.description.abstractThe study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that, under seasonal variation, the incidence rates of some endemic infectious diseases fluctuate dramatically and the dynamics is often characterized by chaotic oscillations in the absence of specific vaccination programs. In fact, the existence of chaotic behavior has been precisely stated in the literature as a noticeable feature in the dynamics of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) seasonally forced epidemic model. However, in the context of epidemiology, chaos is often regarded as an undesirable phenomenon associated with the unpredictability of infectious diseases. As a consequence, the problem of converting chaotic motions into regular motions becomes particularly relevant. In this article, we consider the so-called phase control method applied to the seasonally forced SIR epidemic model to suppress chaos. Interestingly, this method of controlling chaos has a clear meaning as a weak perturbation on a seasonal vaccination strategy. Numerical simulations show that the phase difference between the two periodic forces - contact rate and vaccination - plays a very important role in controlling chaos.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationDUARTE, Jorge; [et al] – Controlling infectious diseases: the decisive phase effect on a seasonal vaccination strategy. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos. ISSN 0218-1274. Vol. 31, N.º 15 (2021), pp. 1-12.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1142/S0218127421300445pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1793-6551
dc.identifier.issn0218-1274
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/14185
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWorld Scientific Publ COpt_PT
dc.relationUIDB/04106/2020 - FCTpt_PT
dc.relationUIDP/04106/2020 - FCTpt_PT
dc.relationFIS2016-76883-P - European Regional Development Fund (ERDF, EU)pt_PT
dc.relationPID2019-105554GB-I00 - European Regional Development Fund (ERDF, EU)pt_PT
dc.subjectInfectious diseasespt_PT
dc.subjectSeasonally forced SIR modelpt_PT
dc.subjectChaotic oscillationpt_PT
dc.subjectVaccination strategypt_PT
dc.subjectChaos controlpt_PT
dc.titleControlling infectious diseases: the decisive phase effect on a seasonal vaccination strategypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FMAT%2F04459%2F2013/PT
oaire.citation.endPage12pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue15pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleInternational Journal of Bifurcation and Chaospt_PT
oaire.citation.volume31pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream5876
person.familyNameDuarte
person.familyNameJanuário
person.familyNameSANJUAN
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameCristina
person.givenNameMIGUEL A. F.
person.identifier.ciencia-idBC1D-1E83-E2B2
person.identifier.ciencia-id101B-390C-E67C
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2641-3199
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6978-876X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2173-0101
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3515-0837
person.identifier.ridG-7261-2011
person.identifier.ridB-7709-2011
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35310049800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56526791400
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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