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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
The paper investigates the dynamics of a model of sentiment switching. The model
is built upon rumor propagation theory and it is designed to uncover, for a given population,
the social process through which optimistic individuals might become pessimistic or the other
way around. The outcome is a scenario of perpetual motion with the shares of optimistic and
pessimistic agents varying persistently over time. On a second stage, the cyclical sentiments
setup is attached to a mechanism of formation of expectations based on the notion of optimized
rationality, leading to a description of the macro economy in which aggregate output and inflation
exhibit sentiment driven fluctuations. The proposed model contributes to a recent strand
of macroeconomic literature that recovers the Keynesian notions of animal spirits, market sentiments
and waves of optimism and pessimism.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
sentiments, animal spirits, business cycles, rumor propagation, New-Keynesian macroeconomics, optimized rationality
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Gomes, O. (2015). “Sentiment Cyclicality.” AUCO Czech Economic Review, vol. 9, nº 2, pp. 104-134.