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Aplicação do system thinking na adoção do hidrogénio em Portugal
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Abstract(s)
A crise climática, impulsionada pelo aumento de fenómenos extremos e pela necessidade de reduzir emissões, exige uma transição energética urgente. O Acordo de Paris e as metas europeias de neutralidade carbónica até 2050 destacam o hidrogénio verde como um vetor estratégico, sendo uma das principais apostas de Portugal para descarbonizar setores como a energia, os transportes e a indústria. Esta dissertação aplica o pensamento sistémico para analisar a adoção do hidrogénio em Portugal, avaliando as interações entre políticas energéticas, infraestrutura e aceitação social. O estudo combina uma análise estática de custos ao longo da cadeia de valor com modelação sistémica para avaliar os impactos de políticas energéticas e critérios de viabilidade técnica, económica e social. Os resultados indicam que estratégias de incentivo ao investimento na produção, aliadas a políticas de apoio à comercialização, podem tornar o hidrogénio competitivo face aos combustíveis convencionais. No entanto, desafios como custos iniciais elevados e a necessidade de infraestrutura adequada persistem, sendo a integração entre produção, distribuição e consumo determinante para o sucesso desta transição. Conclui-se que a abordagem sistémica permite otimizar a transição energética em Portugal, promovendo uma coordenação eficaz entre políticas, investimentos e aceitação social. O estudo reforça o papel do hidrogénio na diversificação energética e neutralidade carbónica, sugerindo futuras investigações sobre a escalabilidade da infraestrutura e os impactos socioeconómicos da sua implementação.
Abstract The climate crisis, driven by the increase in extreme weather events and the urgent need to reduce emissions, demands an immediate energy transition. The Paris Agreement and the European carbon neutrality targets for 2050 highlight green hydrogen as a strategic energy vector, making it one of Portugal’s key investments for decarbonizing sectors such as energy, transport, and industry. This dissertation applies system thinking to analyze the adoption of hydrogen in Portugal, assessing the interactions between energy policies, infrastructure, and social acceptance. The study combines a static cost analysis along the hydrogen value chain with system dynamics modeling to evaluate the impacts of energy policies and criteria of technical, economic, and social viability. The results indicate that investment incentives in hydrogen production, combined with commercialization support policies, can make hydrogen competitive with conventional fuels. However, challenges such as high initial costs and the need for adequate infrastructure persist, making the integration of production, distribution, and consumption a key factor for the success of this transition. It is concluded that the systemic approach optimizes the energy transition in Portugal by promoting effective coordination between policies, investments, and social acceptance. The study reinforces the role of hydrogen in energy diversification and carbon neutrality, suggesting future research on infrastructure scalability and the socioeconomic impacts of its implementation.
Abstract The climate crisis, driven by the increase in extreme weather events and the urgent need to reduce emissions, demands an immediate energy transition. The Paris Agreement and the European carbon neutrality targets for 2050 highlight green hydrogen as a strategic energy vector, making it one of Portugal’s key investments for decarbonizing sectors such as energy, transport, and industry. This dissertation applies system thinking to analyze the adoption of hydrogen in Portugal, assessing the interactions between energy policies, infrastructure, and social acceptance. The study combines a static cost analysis along the hydrogen value chain with system dynamics modeling to evaluate the impacts of energy policies and criteria of technical, economic, and social viability. The results indicate that investment incentives in hydrogen production, combined with commercialization support policies, can make hydrogen competitive with conventional fuels. However, challenges such as high initial costs and the need for adequate infrastructure persist, making the integration of production, distribution, and consumption a key factor for the success of this transition. It is concluded that the systemic approach optimizes the energy transition in Portugal by promoting effective coordination between policies, investments, and social acceptance. The study reinforces the role of hydrogen in energy diversification and carbon neutrality, suggesting future research on infrastructure scalability and the socioeconomic impacts of its implementation.
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Keywords
Hidrogénio Pensamento sistémico Transição energética Sustentabilidade Hydrogen System thinking Energy transition Sustainability