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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O estudo da previsão de default tem sido muito debatido para diversos sectores empresariais, o que se traduziu no desenvolvimento de diversos modelos de previsão de falência, que têm como objetivo auxiliar no processo de cálculo da probabilidade de determinada empresa puder entrar num cenário de default. Relativo ao futebol português, não existe, até à data, um estudo específico onde se contemplem as características
essenciais da indústria do futebol. Esta temática é bastante relevante, dado que os clubes de futebol em Portugal historicamente enfrentam problemas financeiros, e como tal foram obrigados a elevarem as suas exigências financeiras, devido em parte à implementação por parte da UEFA do Fair-play Financeiro.
O presente estudo teve como objetivo apresentar um novo modelo conceptual de avaliação do risco de crédito, tendo por base a análise empírica dos clubes de futebol português, e cujos resultados obtidos apresentam um nível de precisão que ultrapassa os 85%.
Sublinha-se a importância deste estudo pelo facto de as sociedades desportivas se terem tornado cada vez mais complexas, e consequentemente terem a necessidade de responder a índices competitivos mais elevados, o que implicitamente leva à assunção de riscos financeiros mais elevados. Os clubes de futebol em Portugal, alcançaram um nível de profissionalização sem precedentes, alavancados pelas oportunidades desportivas e comerciais proporcionadas pela indústria, e também, pela maior exposição à concessão de
crédito e à entrada de investidores com poder financeiro.
The study of default prediction has been debated for several business sectors, which resulted in the development of various bankruptcy prediction models, which aim to assist in the process of calculating the probability that a given company may enter a default scenario. Regarding Portuguese football, there is, to date, no specific study that addresses the essential characteristics of the football industry. This theme is quite relevant, given that football clubs in Portugal have historically faced financial problems, and as such we're forced to raise their financial requirements, due in part to UEFA's implementation of Financial Fair-play. The present study aimed to present a new conceptual model for credit risk assessment, based on the empirical analysis of Portuguese football clubs, and whose results show a level of accuracy that exceeds 85%. The importance of this study is underlined by the fact that sports societies have become increasingly complex and consequently need to respond to higher competitive indices, which implicitly leads to the assumption of higher financial risks. Portuguese football clubs have reached an unprecedented level of professionalization, leveraged by sporting and commercial opportunities provided by the industry, and also by greater exposure to credit granting and the entry of investors with financial power.
The study of default prediction has been debated for several business sectors, which resulted in the development of various bankruptcy prediction models, which aim to assist in the process of calculating the probability that a given company may enter a default scenario. Regarding Portuguese football, there is, to date, no specific study that addresses the essential characteristics of the football industry. This theme is quite relevant, given that football clubs in Portugal have historically faced financial problems, and as such we're forced to raise their financial requirements, due in part to UEFA's implementation of Financial Fair-play. The present study aimed to present a new conceptual model for credit risk assessment, based on the empirical analysis of Portuguese football clubs, and whose results show a level of accuracy that exceeds 85%. The importance of this study is underlined by the fact that sports societies have become increasingly complex and consequently need to respond to higher competitive indices, which implicitly leads to the assumption of higher financial risks. Portuguese football clubs have reached an unprecedented level of professionalization, leveraged by sporting and commercial opportunities provided by the industry, and also by greater exposure to credit granting and the entry of investors with financial power.
Description
Mestrado em Análise Financeira
Keywords
Finanças Indústria do futebol Risco de crédito Probabilidade de incumprimento Liga portuguesa de futebol profissional Finance Football industry Credit risk Probability of default Portuguese professional football league
Citation
Santos, R. M. (2022) Modelo de avaliação do risco de crédito das sociedades desportivas do futebol profissional português. (Dissertação de mestrado não publicada). Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração de Lisboa. Disponível em http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/15377