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Abstract(s)
A atividade seguradora tem como característica distintiva o facto do seu ciclo operacional ser invertido, porquanto no sector segurador os recebimentos antecedem os pagamentos de eventuais indemnizações, caso ocorra o sinistro cujo risco se transferiu para a seguradora (Barroso, 1999; Outreville, 1997). As empresas seguradoras têm que constituir provisões técnicas com vista a assegurar que responsabilidades futuras perante os seus clientes e terceiros são cobertas. Estas provisões baseiam-se em estimativas não só incorporando dados passados, mas igualmente as expectativas de evolução da Economia e da própria empresa. É assim provável que o grau de otimismo dos diretores financeiros (CFOs) das empresas e as expectativas que criam estejam associadas às provisões que calculam. A ideia por trás das Finanças Comportamentais e da integração da psicologia no estudo da Economia é a de que, para além dos interesses próprios, os CFOs também têm preferências sociais e tomam decisões levando em conta outros fatores, fazendo com que existam desvios relativamente aos modelos económicos teóricos. Através da exploração das consequências de uma racionalidade limitada, preferências sociais e ausência de autocontrolo, Richard Thaler mostrou como estes traços humanos afetam sistematicamente as decisões individuais e os resultados, o que lhe conferiu a atribuição do prémio Nobel da Economia de 2017. A presente investigação tem em foco a área da Economia Comportamental, que se encontra em rápida expansão, encontrando uma relação negativa entre o otimismo dos CFOs e a constituição de provisões no mercado segurador em Portugal, no período compreendido entre 2007 e 2016. Estes resultados que têm impacto no ambiente concorrencial deverão interessar os reguladores, os acionistas e os profissionais do sector.
The insurance activity has as a distinctive characteristic, an inverse cycle production, as in the insurance sector the payment to buy an insurance contract is made before the insured benefits from a potential indemnification (Barroso, 1999 and Outreville, 1997). Insurance companies have to set up technical provisions to ensure that future liabilities to their customers and third parties are covered. These provisions are based on estimates not only incorporating historical data, but also expectations of the evolution of the economy and the company itself. It is thus expected that the optimism level of the insurers’ CFOs and their expectations might be associated with the provisions they estimate and charge on the accounts. The idea behind Behavioral Finance and the integration of psychology in economics is that, in addition to self-interest, CFOs have also social preferences and make decisions taking into account other ‘non-rational’ factors, causing deviations from what the theoretical economics models predict. By analyzing the consequences of bounded rationality, social preferences, and lack of self-control, Richard Thaler has shown how these human traits systematically affect individual decisions and results, which earned him the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2017. The present research focuses on the area of behavioral economics, which is expanding at a fast pace. This study highlights a negative relation between the optimism of CFOs and the provisions they charge in the insurance market in Portugal, spanning 2007 to 2016. These results that have an impact on the competitive environment should interest regulators, shareholders and insurance professionals.
The insurance activity has as a distinctive characteristic, an inverse cycle production, as in the insurance sector the payment to buy an insurance contract is made before the insured benefits from a potential indemnification (Barroso, 1999 and Outreville, 1997). Insurance companies have to set up technical provisions to ensure that future liabilities to their customers and third parties are covered. These provisions are based on estimates not only incorporating historical data, but also expectations of the evolution of the economy and the company itself. It is thus expected that the optimism level of the insurers’ CFOs and their expectations might be associated with the provisions they estimate and charge on the accounts. The idea behind Behavioral Finance and the integration of psychology in economics is that, in addition to self-interest, CFOs have also social preferences and make decisions taking into account other ‘non-rational’ factors, causing deviations from what the theoretical economics models predict. By analyzing the consequences of bounded rationality, social preferences, and lack of self-control, Richard Thaler has shown how these human traits systematically affect individual decisions and results, which earned him the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2017. The present research focuses on the area of behavioral economics, which is expanding at a fast pace. This study highlights a negative relation between the optimism of CFOs and the provisions they charge in the insurance market in Portugal, spanning 2007 to 2016. These results that have an impact on the competitive environment should interest regulators, shareholders and insurance professionals.
Description
Mestrado em Análise Financeira
Keywords
Indústria seguradora Provisões técnicas Finanças comportamentais Risco Incerteza Sinistralidade Insurance industry Technical provisions Behavioral finance Risk Uncertainty Claims