Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Electricity short-term load forecast is very
important for the operation of power systems. In this work a
classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with
double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions
applied to the Portuguese demand time series.
Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the
smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were
used and the results after testing in the time series showed little
differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search
algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Electricity demand Load forecast Combinatorial optimization Evolutionary algorithms