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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O turismo é um setor em forte expansão em Portugal e com um importante contributo na economia
portuguesa. Por isso, o equilíbrio financeiro das empresas neste setor reveste-se da maior relevância, quer para
os agentes económicos, quer para os decisores políticos. Apesar disso, não existem em Portugal trabalhos de
investigação que analisem o fracasso empresarial no setor da hotelaria.
O objetivo principal deste estudo é propor um modelo de antecipação do fracasso empresarial, especificamente
desenvolvido para o setor hoteleiro português. Para esse efeito, utilizamos uma amostra de empresas do sector
à qual aplicamos a análise discriminante e a técnica logit.
Os resultados obtidos mostram um elevado grau de ajustamento do modelo aos dados e indicam que o
modelo utilizado constitui um importante contributo na definição de políticas macroeconómicas e programas de
apoio ao desenvolvimento do turismo, sendo igualmente relevantes para as decisões de investidores e credores.
ABSTRACT: In hospitality and tourism sector, the financial stability of companies has been an issue of major concern, both for economic actors and policymakers. Literature offers us a wide and rich diversity of studies on the issue. Regarding to Portugal, there are studies applied to different economic sectors. However, only a little few have investigated about the hospitality industry. The main goal of this paper is to develop econometric and multivariate models for forecasting business failure in the hospitality industry, using the logit and discriminant analysis. The results show a high degree of adjustment of the model.The practical utility of these models is recognized by different users of accounting documents, particularly investors and creditors. These models also make an important contribution for the definition of macroeconomic policies and public funding programs for investment in tourism sector.
ABSTRACT: In hospitality and tourism sector, the financial stability of companies has been an issue of major concern, both for economic actors and policymakers. Literature offers us a wide and rich diversity of studies on the issue. Regarding to Portugal, there are studies applied to different economic sectors. However, only a little few have investigated about the hospitality industry. The main goal of this paper is to develop econometric and multivariate models for forecasting business failure in the hospitality industry, using the logit and discriminant analysis. The results show a high degree of adjustment of the model.The practical utility of these models is recognized by different users of accounting documents, particularly investors and creditors. These models also make an important contribution for the definition of macroeconomic policies and public funding programs for investment in tourism sector.
Description
Keywords
Fracasso empresarial Modelos de previsão Análise discriminante Logit Hotelaria Business failure Prediction models Discriminant analysis Logit Hospitality
Citation
TEIXEIRA, José Manuel Pereira [et al.] - A previsão do fracasso empresarial utilizando a análise discriminante e o logit no setor hoteleiro português. “População e Sociedade”. Porto: CEPESE. ISSN 0873-1861. 26 (dez 2016). pp. 29-44
Publisher
CEPESE – Centro de Estudos da População, Economia e Sociedade