Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Eusébio, Eduardo; Camus, Cristina Inês; Curvelo, Carolina

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/4525

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Authors

Eusébio, Eduardo

Camus, Cristina Inês

Curvelo, Carolina

Abstract(s)

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Keywords

Electricity demand Load forecast Combinatorial optimization Evolutionary algorithms

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/4525

Citation

EUSÉBIO, Eduardo Adelino Mateus Nunes; CAMUS, Cristina Inês; CURVELO, Carolina - Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast. Renewable Energy & Power Quality Journal. ISSN 2172-038X. Vol. 13 (2014)