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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O presente trabalho elucida o efeito do preço do petróleo na economia portuguesa, sobretudo numa conjuntura de crise. Sabendo-se que Portugal é um país fortemente dependente de petróleo, tendo sofrido uma das piores crises, que inicialmente seria financeira mas que culminou numa recessão económica com a necessidade de pedido de auxílio financeiro ao Fundo Monetário Internacional, a escalada do preço do petróleo torna-se um fator importante de análise, sendo um elemento que influencia a dinâmica da economia portuguesa. Neste âmbito efetuou-se inicialmente a contextualização da crise portuguesa, complementada com uma análise económica, social e financeira, tendo como período observado, entre 2007 e 2014. Durante este o mesmo período foi analisado o comportamento do setor petrolífero, assim como, de que forma este setor pode influenciar a economia portuguesa. Por fim o estudo visou o teste ao efeito do preço do petróleo nas principais variáveis económicas e financeiras portuguesas, tendo sido testada uma amostra de 864 observações repartida em dois períodos, de 2007 a 2010 definido como período antecedente à crise e 2011 a 2014 denominado como período de crise. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a escalada do preço do petróleo durante o período de crise tenha influenciado negativamente a economia portuguesa, sobretudo ao nível do PIB, corroborando o risco económico associado à dependência petrolífera que Portugal detém.
This study elucidates the effect of oil prices on the Portuguese economy, especially in a crisis. Knowing that Portugal is heavily dependent on oil, and having suffered one of the worst crises, which would initially be financial but which culminated in an economic recession with the need to request financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the oil price surge makes if an important factor analysis, one factor that influences the dynamics of the Portuguese economy. In this context made up initially contextualization of the Portuguese crisis, complemented by economic, social and financial analysis, with the observed period between 2007 and 2014. During this same period was analyzed the oil sector, as well as how this sector can influence the portuguese economy. Finally, the study aimed to test the effect of oil prices on the principal economic and financial Portuguese’s variables, have been tested a sample of 864 observations divided into two periods, 2007-2010 defined as the period prior to the crisis and 2011-2014 termed as crisis period. The results suggest that the oil price surge during the crisis period has negatively influenced the Portuguese economy, particularly in terms of GDP, confirming the economic risk associated with oil dependence that Portugal.
This study elucidates the effect of oil prices on the Portuguese economy, especially in a crisis. Knowing that Portugal is heavily dependent on oil, and having suffered one of the worst crises, which would initially be financial but which culminated in an economic recession with the need to request financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the oil price surge makes if an important factor analysis, one factor that influences the dynamics of the Portuguese economy. In this context made up initially contextualization of the Portuguese crisis, complemented by economic, social and financial analysis, with the observed period between 2007 and 2014. During this same period was analyzed the oil sector, as well as how this sector can influence the portuguese economy. Finally, the study aimed to test the effect of oil prices on the principal economic and financial Portuguese’s variables, have been tested a sample of 864 observations divided into two periods, 2007-2010 defined as the period prior to the crisis and 2011-2014 termed as crisis period. The results suggest that the oil price surge during the crisis period has negatively influenced the Portuguese economy, particularly in terms of GDP, confirming the economic risk associated with oil dependence that Portugal.
Description
Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira
Keywords
Petróleo Portugal Economia Crise Risco Oil Economy Crisis Risk