Browsing by Author "Barbosa, Fernando Maciel"
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- Net load forecasting in presence of renewable power curtailmentPublication . Fonte, Pedro M; Monteiro, Cláudio; Barbosa, Fernando MacielThis paper analyzes a real case study based on na islanding power grid, where there is wind power curtailment during the grid operation. This curtailment skews the wind power production database creating a huge challenge to the overall power production forecast. Thus, it is presented a solution which has allowed more accurate forecasts in order to improve the renewable production and reduce the fuel consumption in thermal power plants. The proposed filtering approach demonstrated to be a good solution allowing wind power forecasts with less error and net load forecasts with more accuracy.
- Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal unitsPublication . Fonte, Pedro M; Santos, Bruno; Monteiro, Cláudio; Catalão, João Paulo da Silva; Barbosa, Fernando MacielIn this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.
- Unit commitment based on risk assessment to systems with variable power sourcesPublication . Fonte, Pedro M; Monteiro, Cláudio; Barbosa, Fernando MacielThis paper presents the development of a complete methodology for power systems scheduling with highly variable sources based on a risk assessment model. The methodology is tested in a real case study, namely an island with high penetration of renewable energy production. The uncertainty of renewable power production forecasts and load demand are defined by the probability distribution function, which can be a good alternative to the scenarios approach. The production mix chosen for each hour results from the costs associated to the operation risks, such as load shed and renewable production curtailment. The results to a seven days case study allow concluding about the difficulty to achieve a complete robust solution.