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The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

2021-03-05Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBasili, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorBrizuela, Beatriz
dc.contributor.authorHerrero, Andre
dc.contributor.authorIqbal, Sarfraz
dc.contributor.authorLorito, Stefano
dc.contributor.authorMaesano, Francesco Emanuele
dc.contributor.authorMurphy, Shane
dc.contributor.authorPerfetti, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorRomano, Fabrizio
dc.contributor.authorScala, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorSELVA, Jacopo
dc.contributor.authorTaroni, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorTiberti, Mara Monica
dc.contributor.authorThio, Hong Kie
dc.contributor.authorTonini, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorVolpe, Manuela
dc.contributor.authorGlimsdal, Sylfest
dc.contributor.authorHarbitz, Carl Bonnevie
dc.contributor.authorLovholt, Finn
dc.contributor.authorBaptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana
dc.contributor.authorCarrilho, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorMatias, Luis
dc.contributor.authorOmira, Rachid
dc.contributor.authorBabeyko, Andrey
dc.contributor.authorHoechner, Andreas
dc.contributor.authorGurbuz, Mucahit
dc.contributor.authorPekcan, Onur
dc.contributor.authorYalciner, Ahmet
dc.contributor.authorCanals, Miquel
dc.contributor.authorLastras, Galderic
dc.contributor.authorAgalos, Apostolos
dc.contributor.authorPapadopoulos, Gerassimos
dc.contributor.authorTRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA
dc.contributor.authorBenchekroun, Sabah
dc.contributor.authorJaouadi, Hedi Agrebi
dc.contributor.authorBen Ahmed, Samir
dc.contributor.authorBouallegue, Atef
dc.contributor.authorHamdi, Hassene
dc.contributor.authorOueslati, Foued
dc.contributor.authorAmato, Alessandro
dc.contributor.authorARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO
dc.contributor.authorBehrens, Joern
dc.contributor.authorDavies, Gareth
dc.contributor.authorDi Bucci, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorDolce, Mauro
dc.contributor.authorGeist, Eric
dc.contributor.authorGONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M.
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorMacías, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorMeletti, Carlo
dc.contributor.authorSozdinler, Ceren Ozer
dc.contributor.authorPagani, Marco
dc.contributor.authorParsons, Tom
dc.contributor.authorPolet, Jascha
dc.contributor.authorPower, William
dc.contributor.authorSorensen, Mathilde
dc.contributor.authorZaytsev, Andrey
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-22T14:08:21Z
dc.date.available2021-04-22T14:08:21Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-05
dc.description.abstractThe NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBASILI, Roberto; [et al] - The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). Frontiers in Earth Science. eISSN 2296-6463. Vol. 8 (2021), pp. 1-29pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/feart.2020.616594pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2296-6463
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13222
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherFRONTIERS MEDIA SApt_PT
dc.relationECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 - Mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operationspt_PT
dc.subjectProbabilistic tsunami hazard assessmentpt_PT
dc.subjectEarthquake-generated tsunamipt_PT
dc.subjectHazard uncertainty analysispt_PT
dc.subjectEnsemble modelingpt_PT
dc.subjectMaximum inundation heightpt_PT
dc.subjectNEAMpt_PT
dc.titleThe making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage29pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFrontiers in Earth Sciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume8pt_PT
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