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Abstract(s)
O setor elétrico sofreu uma reforma por todo o mundo, originando um novo modelo que inclui a liberalização da negociação de eletricidade através de mercados organizados ou contratos bilaterais físicos. Com esta reforma eram esperados vários benefícios, como por exemplo, o aumento da eficiência económica e a diminuição de preços para os consumidores. Uma destas reformas originou a integração regional denominada Mercado Ibérico de Eletricidade (MIBEL), sendo uma cooperação entre os governos de Portugal e Espanha, e que viu o seu arranque efetivo a 1 de julho de 2007.
Assim, o comportamento competitivo das empresas produtoras nestes mercados é importante, visto que, ao procurarem maximizar os seus lucros, licitam com base na quantidade e tipo de energia produzida. Uma empresa é mais competitiva quando aumenta essa quantidade ou quando licita a preços menores. Deste modo, mantendo tudo o resto constante, o preço de mercado aumenta, ou diminui, quando as empresas são menos, ou mais, competitivas, respetivamente. Este comportamento pode colocar em risco os benefícios esperados mencionados anteriormente.
O principal objetivo desta dissertação é a análise do comportamento competitivo, representado por um parâmetro denominado Variação Conjetural (VC), de cinco grandes empresas produtoras no mercado diário do MIBEL no ano de 2018: Endesa, Iberdrola, Gas Natural Fenosa (GNF), Hidrocantábrico (HNC) e EDP. Inicialmente procede-se à análise e caracterização do comportamento competitivo de cada empresa, apresentando-se uma análise exploratória dos dados, um estudo relativo à associação entre o comportamento competitivo das empresas, e uma caracterização da influência da PRE nesses comportamentos. Por fim, leva-se a cabo uma análise dos perfis diários do comportamento competitivo das empresas através do agrupamento e caracterização dos mesmos em clusters que apresentam um perfil competitivo semelhante.
As conclusões mostram que as empresas mais e menos competitivas são, respetivamente, a EDP e a HNC, e que a variabilidade da VC é superior, ou inferior, quando há mais, ou menos, PRE no mercado, respetivamente. Observa-se também uma maior associação entre os comportamentos da GNF, HNC e EDP. Através da análise de clusters, as empresas são mais competitivas em dias em que existe um menor preço de mercado, à exceção da Iberdrola, e em dias em que existe uma maior quantidade transacionada no mercado proveniente das tecnologias nuclear e hídrica, apenas hídrica, hídrica e PRE ou até de todas as tecnologias no mercado.
The electricity industry has suffered a reform through the world, originating a new model which includes the liberalization of the electricity negotiation through organized markets or physical bilateral contracts. Various benefits were expected with this reform, like, for example, the increase of the economic efficiency and the decrease of the prices paid by the consumers. One of these reforms originated a regional integration called Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), which is a cooperation between the governments of Portugal and Spain, which was implemented in 01 July of 2007. In this context, the competitive behaviour of the companies in this type of markets is important, since that, by seeking to maximize their profit, they bid based on their own quantity and type of produced energy. A company is more competitive when it increases its quantity or offers bids at a lower price. Thus, by keeping everything else constant, the market price increases, or decreases, when the companies are less, or more, competitive, respectively. This behaviour can put in risk the expected benefits mentioned before. The main objective of this dissertation is the analysis of the competitive behaviour, represented by a parameter called the Conjectural Variation (CV), of the five bigger producer companies in MIBEL during 2018: Endesa, Iberdrola, Gas Natural Fenosa (GNF), Hidrocantábrico (HNC) and EDP. First, we proceed to the analysis and characterization of each company’s competitive behaviour, presenting an exploratory analysis of the data, a study relative to the association between the different companies' competitive behaviour, and a characterization of the PRE influence in these behaviours. In the end, an analysis of the daily profiles of the companies’ competitive behaviour is carried out through its’ grouping and characterization in clusters that present a similar competitive behaviour. The conclusions show that the more, and less, competitive companies are, respectively, EDP and Hidrocantábrico, and that the VC variability is superior, or inferior, when there’s more, or less, PRE in the market. There’s also a bigger visible association between GNF, HNC and EDP behaviours. Through the clusters analysis, the companies present a more competitive behaviour in the days that there’s a smaller market price, with the exception of Iberdrola, and in the days that there are bigger electrical energy transactions coming from nuclear energy and hydro, only hydro, both hydro and PRE or from all of their technologies in the market.
The electricity industry has suffered a reform through the world, originating a new model which includes the liberalization of the electricity negotiation through organized markets or physical bilateral contracts. Various benefits were expected with this reform, like, for example, the increase of the economic efficiency and the decrease of the prices paid by the consumers. One of these reforms originated a regional integration called Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), which is a cooperation between the governments of Portugal and Spain, which was implemented in 01 July of 2007. In this context, the competitive behaviour of the companies in this type of markets is important, since that, by seeking to maximize their profit, they bid based on their own quantity and type of produced energy. A company is more competitive when it increases its quantity or offers bids at a lower price. Thus, by keeping everything else constant, the market price increases, or decreases, when the companies are less, or more, competitive, respectively. This behaviour can put in risk the expected benefits mentioned before. The main objective of this dissertation is the analysis of the competitive behaviour, represented by a parameter called the Conjectural Variation (CV), of the five bigger producer companies in MIBEL during 2018: Endesa, Iberdrola, Gas Natural Fenosa (GNF), Hidrocantábrico (HNC) and EDP. First, we proceed to the analysis and characterization of each company’s competitive behaviour, presenting an exploratory analysis of the data, a study relative to the association between the different companies' competitive behaviour, and a characterization of the PRE influence in these behaviours. In the end, an analysis of the daily profiles of the companies’ competitive behaviour is carried out through its’ grouping and characterization in clusters that present a similar competitive behaviour. The conclusions show that the more, and less, competitive companies are, respectively, EDP and Hidrocantábrico, and that the VC variability is superior, or inferior, when there’s more, or less, PRE in the market. There’s also a bigger visible association between GNF, HNC and EDP behaviours. Through the clusters analysis, the companies present a more competitive behaviour in the days that there’s a smaller market price, with the exception of Iberdrola, and in the days that there are bigger electrical energy transactions coming from nuclear energy and hydro, only hydro, both hydro and PRE or from all of their technologies in the market.
Description
Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica – Ramo de Energia
Keywords
Clustering Comportamento estratégico MIBEL Strategic behaviour
Citation
GARCIAS, João Maria Nabais Camejo Ferreira – Análise do comportamento competitivo das empresas produtoras no mercado diário do MIBEL. Lisboa: Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, 2021. Dissertação de Mestrado.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa