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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in meso and macro tidal areas. Application to the Cadiz Bay, Spain

2021-05-13Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorGonzalez, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorAlvarez-Gomez, Jose A.
dc.contributor.authorAniel-Quiroga, Inigo
dc.contributor.authorOtero, Luís
dc.contributor.authorOlabarrieta, Maitane
dc.contributor.authorOmira, Rachid
dc.contributor.authorLuceno, Alberto
dc.contributor.authorJelinek, Robert
dc.contributor.authorKrausmann, Elisabeth
dc.contributor.authorBirkman, Joern
dc.contributor.authorBaptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana
dc.contributor.authorMiranda, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorAguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-25T10:12:04Z
dc.date.available2021-06-25T10:12:04Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-13
dc.description.abstractTsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The deterministic approach is based on a "credible" worst case tsunami, which is often selected from historical events in the region of study. Within the probabilistic approach (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis can be carried out in particular regions where historical records of tsunami heights and runup are available. In areas where these historical records are scarce, synthetic series of events are usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, the sea level variation and the currents forced by the tidal motion are either disregarded or considered and treated as aleatory uncertainties in the numerical models. However, in zones with a macro and meso tidal regime, the effect of the tides on the probability distribution of tsunami hazard can be highly important. In this work, we present a PTHA methodology based on the generation of synthetic seismic catalogs and the incorporation of the sea level variation into a Monte Carlo simulation. We applied this methodology to the Bay of Cadiz area in Spain, a zone that was greatly damaged by the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We build a database of tsunami numerical simulations for different variables: faults, earthquake magnitudes, epicenter locations and sea levels. From this database we generate a set of scenarios from the synthetic seismic catalogs and tidal conditions based on the probabilistic distribution of the involved variables. These scenarios cover the entire range of possible tsunami events in the synthetic catalog (earthquakes and sea levels). Each tsunami scenario is propagated using the tsunami numerical model C3, from the source region to the target coast (Cadiz Bay). Finally, we map the maximum values for a given probability of the selected variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing a set of thematic hazard maps. 1000 different time series of combined tsunamigenic earthquakes and tidal levels were synthetically generated using the Monte Carlo technique. Each time series had a 10000-year duration. The tsunami characteristics were statistically analyzed to derive different thematic maps for the return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years, including the maximum wave elevation, the maximum current speed, the maximum Froude number, and the maximum total forces.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationGONZALEZ, Mauricio; [et al] – Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in meso and macro tidal areas. Application to the Cadiz Bay, Spain. Frontiers in Earth Science. eISSN 2296-6463. Vol. 9 (2021), pp. 1-22pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/feart.2021.591383pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2296-6463
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13485
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherFRONTIERS MEDIA SApt_PT
dc.relationMTM2008-00759pt_PT
dc.subjectTsunamipt_PT
dc.subjectPTHApt_PT
dc.subjectMonte Carlopt_PT
dc.subjectTsunamigenic-sourcespt_PT
dc.subjectNumerical modelingpt_PT
dc.titleProbabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in meso and macro tidal areas. Application to the Cadiz Bay, Spainpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage22pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFrontiers in Earth Sciencept_PT
oaire.citation.volume9pt_PT
person.familyNameOmira
person.familyNamede Carvalho Viana Baptista
person.familyNameAguirre-Ayerbe
person.givenNameRachid
person.givenNameMARIA ANA
person.givenNameIgnacio
person.identifier972486
person.identifierhttps://scholar.google.pt/citations?user=ApQ9Bp4AAAAJ&hl=pt-PT
person.identifier1051362
person.identifier.ciencia-idC116-66FF-BB9B
person.identifier.ciencia-idCF12-1EE3-F49B
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6198-7588
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6381-703X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0985-258X
person.identifier.ridN-2533-2013
person.identifier.ridT-5329-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id34971883700
person.identifier.scopus-author-idhttps://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=7102934075
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55872016900
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationa01dd185-70d9-4a8e-9c8c-1418e555ef00
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationc452d8db-29de-40d4-a1df-e9f524cfd42e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryc57e1a9c-7628-49a3-98f9-4465f1ba5e5a

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