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Simulação e análise dos indicadores financeiros dos projetos fotovoltaicos do leilão solar de 2020
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Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo a análise dos preços alcançados no leilão de 2020, bem como o estudo de viabilidade económica dos projetos adjudicados no prazo contratual da tarifa (15 anos) e no período estimado de vida útil do investimento realizado (25 anos). O trabalho resultante desta dissertação é a implementação de um modelo que, com os dados dos leilões solares, permita fazer uma simulação com determinados custos de investimento e possíveis cenários de preços de mercado, contabilizando todo o sistema evolvente como parque fotovoltaico, ligação à rede, subestação e armazenamento de energia. É possível verificar, pela simulação, que a estratégia destes promotores passará por ter o ativo, ou seja, central fotovoltaica para além do prazo contratual da tarifa (15 anos) de modo a atingirem indicadores económicos que apontem na viabilidade do projeto e do investimento. De modo os projetos tornarem-se rentáveis, seria vantajoso os preços de mercado rondarem a média dos preços de 2019, ou seja, 47,90 €/MWh. É elaborado um enquadramento legal no qual poderá ser benéfico para os promotores, tal como o despacho da hibridização. A simulação vem ajudar a definir o perfil do promotor face aos lotes do leilão de 2020 e estudar vários cenários.
Abstract This dissertation’s objective aims to analyze the prices reached in the 2020 Portuguese solar auction, as well as the economic feasibility study of the projects awarded within the contractual term of the tariff (15 years) and in the estimated useful life of the investment made (25 years). The work resulting from this dissertation is the implementation of a model that, with data from solar auctions, allows a simulation with certain investment costs and possible market price scenarios, accounting for the entire evolving system such as photovoltaic park, grid connection, substation, and energy storage. It is possible to verify, through the simulation, that the strategy of these promoters will be to have the asset, that is, the photovoltaic plant, beyond the contractual term of the tariff (15 years) in order to achieve economic indicators that point to the feasibility of the project and investment. For the projects to become profitable, it would be advantageous for market prices to be around the average of 2019 prices, that is, €47.90/MWh. A legal framework is drawn up in which it could be beneficial to promoters, such as the hybridization dispatch. The simulation helps to define the profile of the promoter against the 2020 auction lots and the study of different scenarios.
Abstract This dissertation’s objective aims to analyze the prices reached in the 2020 Portuguese solar auction, as well as the economic feasibility study of the projects awarded within the contractual term of the tariff (15 years) and in the estimated useful life of the investment made (25 years). The work resulting from this dissertation is the implementation of a model that, with data from solar auctions, allows a simulation with certain investment costs and possible market price scenarios, accounting for the entire evolving system such as photovoltaic park, grid connection, substation, and energy storage. It is possible to verify, through the simulation, that the strategy of these promoters will be to have the asset, that is, the photovoltaic plant, beyond the contractual term of the tariff (15 years) in order to achieve economic indicators that point to the feasibility of the project and investment. For the projects to become profitable, it would be advantageous for market prices to be around the average of 2019 prices, that is, €47.90/MWh. A legal framework is drawn up in which it could be beneficial to promoters, such as the hybridization dispatch. The simulation helps to define the profile of the promoter against the 2020 auction lots and the study of different scenarios.
Description
Keywords
Energia renovável Energia fotovoltaica Armazenamento Hibridização Mercado de energia Avaliação económica Renewable energy Photovoltaic energy Storage Hybridization Energy market Economic evaluation