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Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

2012-04-14Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorSoares, Pedro Miguel Matos
dc.contributor.authorCardoso, Rita M.
dc.contributor.authorMiranda, Pedro M. A.
dc.contributor.authorViterbo, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorBelo-Pereira, Margarida
dc.date.accessioned2015-08-28T14:22:27Z
dc.date.available2015-08-28T14:22:27Z
dc.date.issued2012-04-14
dc.description.abstractA new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.por
dc.identifier.citationSOARES, Pedro M. M., [et al] - Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. ISSN: 2169-897X. Vol. 117 (2012), pp. 1-18por
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2011JD016768
dc.identifier.issn2169-897X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/5039
dc.language.isoengpor
dc.peerreviewedyespor
dc.publisherAmer Geophysical Unionpor
dc.relationFCT - Portuguese Science Foundation - REWRITE-PTDC/CLI/73814/2006
dc.relationEU- European Union - GOCE-CT-2003-505539
dc.relationGOCE-CT-2003-505539
dc.subjectUS Pacific-Northwestpor
dc.subjectEuropean Climatepor
dc.subjectSimulationspor
dc.subjectTemperaturepor
dc.subject20th-Centurypor
dc.subjectPerformancepor
dc.subjectProjectionspor
dc.subjectStatisticspor
dc.subjectPatternspor
dc.subjectDatasetpor
dc.titleAssessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugalpor
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FCLI%2F73814%2F2006/PT
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceWashington
oaire.citation.endPage18
oaire.citation.startPage1
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Geophysical Research-Atmospherespor
oaire.citation.volume117por
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspor
rcaap.typearticlepor
relation.isProjectOfPublicationcfdcead7-9bf3-47a9-b33d-26682a0620b5
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoverycfdcead7-9bf3-47a9-b33d-26682a0620b5

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