Percorrer por autor "Gonzalez, Mauricio"
A mostrar 1 - 2 de 2
Resultados por página
Opções de ordenação
- Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in meso and macro tidal areas. Application to the Cadiz Bay, SpainPublication . Gonzalez, Mauricio; Alvarez-Gomez, Jose A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Inigo; Otero, Luís; Olabarrieta, Maitane; Omira, Rachid; Luceno, Alberto; Jelinek, Robert; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Birkman, Joern; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Miranda, Miguel; Aguirre-Ayerbe, IgnacioTsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The deterministic approach is based on a "credible" worst case tsunami, which is often selected from historical events in the region of study. Within the probabilistic approach (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis can be carried out in particular regions where historical records of tsunami heights and runup are available. In areas where these historical records are scarce, synthetic series of events are usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, the sea level variation and the currents forced by the tidal motion are either disregarded or considered and treated as aleatory uncertainties in the numerical models. However, in zones with a macro and meso tidal regime, the effect of the tides on the probability distribution of tsunami hazard can be highly important. In this work, we present a PTHA methodology based on the generation of synthetic seismic catalogs and the incorporation of the sea level variation into a Monte Carlo simulation. We applied this methodology to the Bay of Cadiz area in Spain, a zone that was greatly damaged by the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We build a database of tsunami numerical simulations for different variables: faults, earthquake magnitudes, epicenter locations and sea levels. From this database we generate a set of scenarios from the synthetic seismic catalogs and tidal conditions based on the probabilistic distribution of the involved variables. These scenarios cover the entire range of possible tsunami events in the synthetic catalog (earthquakes and sea levels). Each tsunami scenario is propagated using the tsunami numerical model C3, from the source region to the target coast (Cadiz Bay). Finally, we map the maximum values for a given probability of the selected variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing a set of thematic hazard maps. 1000 different time series of combined tsunamigenic earthquakes and tidal levels were synthetically generated using the Monte Carlo technique. Each time series had a 10000-year duration. The tsunami characteristics were statistically analyzed to derive different thematic maps for the return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years, including the maximum wave elevation, the maximum current speed, the maximum Froude number, and the maximum total forces.
- The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)Publication . Basili, Roberto; Brizuela, Beatriz; Herrero, Andre; Iqbal, Sarfraz; Lorito, Stefano; Maesano, Francesco Emanuele; Murphy, Shane; Perfetti, Paolo; Romano, Fabrizio; Scala, Antonio; SELVA, Jacopo; Taroni, Matteo; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Thio, Hong Kie; Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie; Lovholt, Finn; Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Carrilho, Fernando; Matias, Luis; Omira, Rachid; Babeyko, Andrey; Hoechner, Andreas; Gurbuz, Mucahit; Pekcan, Onur; Yalciner, Ahmet; Canals, Miquel; Lastras, Galderic; Agalos, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; TRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA; Benchekroun, Sabah; Jaouadi, Hedi Agrebi; Ben Ahmed, Samir; Bouallegue, Atef; Hamdi, Hassene; Oueslati, Foued; Amato, Alessandro; ARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO; Behrens, Joern; Davies, Gareth; Di Bucci, Daniela; Dolce, Mauro; Geist, Eric; GONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M.; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Macías, Jorge; Meletti, Carlo; Sozdinler, Ceren Ozer; Pagani, Marco; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Sorensen, Mathilde; Zaytsev, AndreyThe NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.