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Avaliação de cenários de descarbonização do setor rodoviário português
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Authors
Abstract(s)
Tendo em conta as metas nacionais e europeias de descarbonização, o sector dos transportes possui elevada relevância, considerando que representa cerca de 25% das emissões de gases de efeito de estufa. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar estratégias de descarbonização no sector dos transportes, de forma a verificar as metas 2050. Foi utilizado um modelo que tem por base o histórico do parque automóvel nacional, as vendas de novos veículos e o abatimento dos mais antigos, para estimar a composição do parque automóvel até 2050. Pela elevada importância da mobilidade elétrica e considerando a que a partir de 2035 deixarão de ser vendidos veículos com motores de combustão interna, foram analisados cenários de penetração de veículos elétricos e de combustíveis sintéticos, que cumpram com reduções de 55% de gases de efeito de estufa em 2030 (face a 2005) e 90% em 2050 a nível europeu. Adicionalmente, também serão analisadas as premissas do Roteiro para Neutralidade Carbónica, que se prevê que a mobilidade elétrica nos ligeiros de passageiros seja superior a 36% até 2030 e atinja os 100% em 2050. Os resultados obtidos indicam que será difícil atingir as metas de descarbonização de curto prazo (2030) preconizadas para o setor dos transportes a nível nacional, mesmo num cenário em que os BEV atingem uma quota de mercado de 60% já em 2030 e 85% em 2050. No entanto os resultados demonstram também que mesmo assim as metas definidas para médio/longo prazo (2050) ainda são alcançáveis havendo mais que um caminho possível para o fazer, já que em todos os cenários desenvolvidos, é alcançada uma redução acima dos 90% das emissões WTW de CO2, algo que está alinhado com as metas gerais de redução de 85-90% das emissões de GEE definidas no RNC2050.
Abstract Considering the national and European decarbonization targets, the transport sector is highly relevant, as it accounts for around 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this study is to analyze decarbonization strategies in the transport sector in order to verify the 2050 targets. A model based on the history of the national vehicle fleet, sales of new vehicles and the scrapping of older vehicles was used to estimate the composition of the vehicle fleet up to 2050. Given the high importance of electric mobility and considering that vehicles with internal combustion engines will no longer be sold from 2035 onwards, scenarios were analyzed for the penetration of electric vehicles and synthetic fuels, which comply with greenhouse gas reductions of 55% in 2030 (compared to 2005) and 90% in 2050 at European level. In addition, the assumptions of the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality will also be analyzed, with electric mobility in passenger cars expected to exceed 30% by 2030 and reach 100% by 2050. The results show that it will be difficult to achieve the decarbonization short term (2030) targets set for the transport sector at national level, even in a scenario where BEVs reach a market share of 60% by 2030 and 85% by 2050. This growth will result in a radical change in the car fleet, with electric passenger cars accounting for around 77% of it by 2050. With this transformation it will be possible to reduce net CO2 emissions in the vehicle use phase by 27% in 2030 and 93% in 2050. However, the results also show that, the targets set for the medium to long term (2050) are still achievable and there is more than one possible way to do this, since in all the scenarios developed, a reduction of over 90% of WTW CO2 emissions is achieved, something that is in line with the general targets of reducing GHG emissions by 85-90% set out in the RNC2050.
Abstract Considering the national and European decarbonization targets, the transport sector is highly relevant, as it accounts for around 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this study is to analyze decarbonization strategies in the transport sector in order to verify the 2050 targets. A model based on the history of the national vehicle fleet, sales of new vehicles and the scrapping of older vehicles was used to estimate the composition of the vehicle fleet up to 2050. Given the high importance of electric mobility and considering that vehicles with internal combustion engines will no longer be sold from 2035 onwards, scenarios were analyzed for the penetration of electric vehicles and synthetic fuels, which comply with greenhouse gas reductions of 55% in 2030 (compared to 2005) and 90% in 2050 at European level. In addition, the assumptions of the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality will also be analyzed, with electric mobility in passenger cars expected to exceed 30% by 2030 and reach 100% by 2050. The results show that it will be difficult to achieve the decarbonization short term (2030) targets set for the transport sector at national level, even in a scenario where BEVs reach a market share of 60% by 2030 and 85% by 2050. This growth will result in a radical change in the car fleet, with electric passenger cars accounting for around 77% of it by 2050. With this transformation it will be possible to reduce net CO2 emissions in the vehicle use phase by 27% in 2030 and 93% in 2050. However, the results also show that, the targets set for the medium to long term (2050) are still achievable and there is more than one possible way to do this, since in all the scenarios developed, a reduction of over 90% of WTW CO2 emissions is achieved, something that is in line with the general targets of reducing GHG emissions by 85-90% set out in the RNC2050.
Description
Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica, na Área de Especialização de Energia, Climatização e Refrigeração
Keywords
Descarbonização Mobilidade elétrica Gases efeito estufa Parque automóve Decarbonization Electric mobility Greenhouse gases Car fleet
Citation
SALVADOR, João Paulo Henriques – Avaliação de cenários de descarbonização do setor rodoviário português. Lisboa: Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa. 2024. Dissertação de Mestrado.